Housing Affordability Strains the Story of the American Dream

Housing Costs Outpace Wages as Homeownership Narratives Intensify

Perscient's semantic signature tracking the density of language about homeownership being out of reach for Americans rose sharply in December, climbing to a level more than twice its long-term average. This surge reflects mounting media attention to housing affordability challenges that have pushed homeownership beyond the financial reach of most households. Accompanying this rise, language asserting that every working American should be able to own their own home strengthened to 59% above its historical mean, suggesting that media narratives are simultaneously documenting the problem and reinforcing homeownership as a normative aspiration.

Housing experts describe the current market as among the most challenging in decades, with more than half of Americans reporting that their incomes haven't kept pace with home prices. In markets like Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego, fewer than one in 50 listings remain affordable to typical households. The median age of first-time homebuyers has climbed to an all-time high of 40 years old, reflecting how far the traditional path to homeownership has been pushed back for younger Americans. On social media, Marcus Lemonis captured the emotional resonance of this shift, writing that "for generations, the American Dream was simple and deeply human: the ability to have a home. A place to build a family. A place to celebrate holidays. A place to feel safe, rooted, and proud. Today, that dream is slipping further."

The growing disconnect between housing costs and incomes has begun reshaping Americans' expectations. The share of renters saying homeownership is not part of the American Dream rose from 27% in 2021 to 34% in 2025, with nearly a third of renters now saying they do not ever plan to buy a home. Survey data indicates that 80% of Americans believe homeownership is becoming increasingly out of reach, while three out of four feel their current income falls short of what's needed to purchase a home in their area. Perscient’s semantic signature tracking the density of language arguing that the American Dream is dying rose modestly to 61% above its long-term average, suggesting that media narratives are beginning to question whether this foundational American aspiration remains viable.

Congressional action seems to signal at least some recognition of the crisis's severity. The Senate Banking Committee's unanimous, bipartisan vote supporting the ROAD to Housing Act, combined with the House Financial Services Committee's passage of the Housing for the 21st Century Act on December 17, represented increasingly rare cross-party alignment on housing policy. Yet forecasters project only modest improvements ahead, with Redfin noting that even with lower mortgage rates and increased sales, homes won't be affordable for young families anytime soon. The Trump administration's proposed tariffs could result in 450,000 fewer new homes through 2030, potentially deepening the supply constraints driving prices higher.

Rising Inequality Concern Narratives Go Beyond Home Ownership

These housing affordability pressures are inextricably connected to broader questions being raised in popular media about economic distribution. Perscient's semantic signature tracking the density of language criticizing American capitalism as primarily benefiting the wealthy moved into positive territory for the first time in months, rising to 6% above its long-term average. Defenders of capitalism are not giving up their stories without a fight, however. The density of language celebrating capitalism’s historic role in lifting people from poverty, while still 37% below its historical mean, became substantially less negative in December. This convergence suggests an active debate in which some publicly questioning capitalism's distributional outcomes while others increasingly responding with older stories about its role in generating prosperity.

The wealth concentration driving these narratives has reached extraordinary levels. Data from the World Inequality Report shows that fewer than 60,000 people—representing 0.001% of the world's population—control three times as much wealth as the entire bottom half of humanity. The wealth of billionaires and centi-millionaires has grown at approximately 8% annually since the 1990s, nearly twice the rate of the bottom half. In 2025, the richest 10% of the world received 53% of global income while the bottom 50% earned just 8%. Robert Reich noted on social media that "56,000 wealthy individuals have more than roughly 4 billion people."

The 2025 inauguration of Donald Trump, backed by Elon Musk, has brought these dynamics into sharper focus. Outgoing President Biden warned of an "oligarchy taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence." The Washington Post investigated how America's wealthiest people are spending large amounts on U.S. politics, reshaping democratic institutions. Bloomberg reported that the world's richest billionaires added $2.2 trillion in wealth during 2025, with just eight billionaires accounting for about a quarter of the year's gains.

Language asserting that America rewards individual merit remained 10% above its long-term average but declined slightly, suggesting some erosion in narratives emphasizing meritocratic outcomes. The emergence of references to a "K-shaped economy" reflects growing recognition that economic recovery and prosperity are diverging sharply across income groups. NPR documented how Trump's policies are "picking winners and losers" and blurring lines between business and government, while The Guardian argued that U.S. capitalism "casts millions of citizens aside." On social media, economist Steve Hanke pointed to the Federal Reserve as a driver of inequality, noting that billionaires' wealth grew from 14.1% of GDP in early 2020 to 22.7% currently.

Geographic Determinism and Mobility Narratives Gain Attention

Media are increasingly mapping these economic disparities onto geographic divides. Perscient's semantic signature tracking the density of language arguing that zip codes determine life outcomes surged by nearly 30 points in December, representing the largest single-month movement across all tracked signatures. Despite this sharp rise, the signature remains 40% below its long-term average, suggesting that while media attention to geographic inequality intensified in December, coverage has not yet returned to historical norms.

The academic consensus on neighborhood effects has strengthened considerably. Research from the Minneapolis Fed confirms that several independent studies over the past 25 years have established that neighborhoods where children grow up shape their life outcomes. Raj Chetty's influential 2014 research demonstrated huge variation in intergenerational mobility between different U.S. cities. The number of Americans living in neighborhoods where more than 40% of residents are poor has nearly doubled since 2000, reaching 13.8 million. Meanwhile, children who move to neighborhoods fostering mobility see their average annual earnings as adults increase by 31%.

However, the framing of geographic determinism has become more contested. Recent research has raised concerns about whether neighborhood effects are causal or merely correlational, questioning conclusions about neighborhoods' importance for economic mobility. Language asserting that birthplace doesn't define outcomes in America remained flat at 20% below its long-term average, suggesting media maintain some optimism about mobility even as they explore geographic inequality more deeply.

The intersection of housing affordability and geographic opportunity has created new tensions. As The Conversation reported, the housing crisis is forcing Americans to choose between affordability and safety, with more people moving to flood plains and fire zones. Social media discussions reflect frustration with the trade-offs families face, with one user noting the irony of "paying half your income for a house in the 'good schools' zip code" only to face other challenges. Health care discussions increasingly frame disparities through geographic lenses, with NYU Langone Health exploring how community-clinical partnerships can address health outcomes that vary dramatically by zip code.

The sharp monthly increase in language density around geographic determinism, combined with stable narratives about birthplace not defining outcomes, suggests media are grappling with how to frame opportunity in America. The data indicates growing recognition that place matters profoundly for life chances, even as the traditional American narrative of geographic mobility—the idea that you can always move somewhere with better opportunities—remains present in media discourse.

Archived Pulse

December 2025

• Housing Affordability Concerns Dominate Discourse on Economic Opportunity
• Capitalism Critiques Gain Ground Amid Wealth Concentration Concerns
• Geographic Determinism Language Rebounds While Structural Barrier Narratives Weaken

November 2025

• Entrepreneurial Spirit Surges to All-Time Peak
• Competing Narratives on the American Dream and Meritocracy
• Housing Affordability Crisis Deepens

Pulse is your AI analyst built on Perscient technology, summarizing the major changes and evolving narratives across our Storyboard signatures, and synthesizing that analysis with illustrative news articles and high-impact social media posts.