Immigration, Polarization Narratives Intensify into Year-End 2025

Immigration Enforcement and Urban Impact Drive Historic Narrative Density

Language arguing that mass migration is destroying America reached its highest point on record in December, climbing to 136 percent above its long-term average. This represented a 101-point increase from November, the largest single-month gain among all tracked narratives. The surge coincides with the Trump administration's announcement of approximately 600,000 deportations and 1.9 million self-deportations since January 20, 2025, with ICE operations expanding across major cities including Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, New York, and Seattle.

The enforcement campaign has not only changed popular immigration narratives – it has altered how immigration policy operates in practice. ICE shifted away from focusing on arrests at local jails toward tracking migrants down in communities, resulting in what the Washington Post analysis described as a surge of at-large arrests. Some of this shift in enforcement appears to be taking place in virtual communities, too. An internal State Department memo indicated that anyone involved in "censorship" of free speech would be considered for visa rejection, while the administration paused all immigration applications from 19 non-European countries including Afghanistan and Somalia.

For much of 2025, language celebrating immigrants' contributions to American greatness have tended to rise up against rising anti-immigrant narratives. While that was true in December as well – the density of such language rose modestly by 6 points – it did not come close to matching the intensity of anti-immigrant language. This language has taken other forms as well, such as arguments that multiculturalism has failed in America, the density of which increased by 30 points to 55 percent above its long-term average. A senior Department of Homeland Security official's November statement that "America is not a nation of immigrants" marked a rhetorical departure from narratives that have dominated American political discourse since at least the 1950s.

The policy changes have created widespread confusion and fear among both unauthorized and legal immigrants alike. The administration moved to strip permissions from 1.6 million people who attempted to migrate through legal channels, representing what advocates called the largest-ever effort to remove legal immigration status. A New York Times report revealed that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services would prioritize denaturalization cases targeting those who allegedly obtained citizenship unlawfully.

The enforcement intensification has occurred despite research showing immigration's role in urban recovery. Immigration accounted for all growth in 21 of 54 growing metro areas after pandemic-era declines, and half or more of growth in another 24 metro areas. Yet the year saw what researchers characterized as unwelcoming policies targeting not just unauthorized immigrants but also lawful foreign-born workers, with a reported 2000 percent increase in non-criminal detainees arrested by ICE since the start of the second Trump administration.

Immigration Narratives Shape Higher Education and Workforce Storytelling

The enforcement focus on unauthorized immigration continued to extend to debates about legal pathways for skilled workers and students in December as it has for much of 2025. The density of language connected with arguments opposing excessive foreign enrollment in American institutions climbed to reach 143 percent above its long-term average, while language celebrating America's ability to attract global talent remained essentially unchanged at 35 percent above its historical mean. This gap widened after a federal judge upheld the Trump administration's $100,000 H-1B visa fee on December 23, with the fee introduced through Presidential Proclamation on September 19 and targeting new applicants requiring consular processing outside the United States.

The visa fee provoked immediate legal challenges from state coalitions concerned about workforce shortages. California Attorney General Rob Bonta argued the fee could cause staffing shortages for teachers, physicians, researchers, and nurses, endangering the state's ability to provide critical services. Oregon's Attorney General similarly filed suit, emphasizing that institutions like Oregon State University and the University of Oregon rely on H-1B visas to fill specialized roles.

The administration simultaneously introduced new H-1B lottery rules prioritizing higher-wage workers. Under the revised system, beneficiaries assigned to the highest wage level will be entered four times, increasing selection odds to 61 percent, while second-highest wage level beneficiaries entered three times will see odds rise to 46 percent. The Department of Homeland Security framed the change as prioritizing skilled, higher-paid foreign workers.

Critics argued the existing system already displaces American workers. Between 2012 and 2021, temporary visa holders earned between 25 and 40 percent of all science and engineering master's degrees and between 33 and 35 percent of all science and engineering doctorates. By 2024, temporary visa holders earned 58 percent of computer science doctorates and 51 percent of engineering doctorates. Social media discussions highlighted that 70 percent of H-1Bs go to outsourcing-heavy firms, with OPT workers costing employers 12 to 15 percent less by design.

The financial stakes for higher education are substantial. A sharp drop in foreign enrollment could cost colleges $7 billion in revenue and 60,000 jobs, with a 20 percent decline in international enrollment translating into a 0.5 percentage-point hit to earnings margins for 130 rated colleges and 2 to 8 point losses for 18 institutions. Enrollment of new international students at U.S. universities already dropped by 17 percent in fall 2025 compared to the prior year.

President Trump's harder line on international students has extended to Optional Practical Training, which allows graduates to remain for a year, with some in science and engineering fields eligible for up to three years. A Trump administration official floated eliminating the program entirely, with critics describing OPT as a bridge between temporary F student visas and de facto-permanent H-1B visas that places American students in competition with foreign students at each step of the educational and employment pipeline.

Political Polarization Narratives Continue to Deepen into Year-End 2025

The immigration policy debates have unfolded within a broader context of increasing partisan division. The density of language portraying domestic political opponents as existential threats increased by 8 points to 57 percent above average, a development that we expect will surprise precisely no one.

In 2025, the percentage of Americans self-identifying as politically moderate reached a record low of 34 percent, with 77 percent of Republicans identifying as conservative and 55 percent of Democrats identifying as liberal. A Pew Research Center analysis found that Democrats' anger toward the federal government reached the highest share expressed by members of either party in surveys dating back to 1997, while GOP contentment exceeded levels seen at any point during Trump's first administration.

The Wall Street Journal characterized the 2025 political system as having "a total breakdown in trust" between the two parties and among the general public. Eight-in-ten U.S. adults told researchers that Republican and Democratic voters not only disagree on plans and policies but cannot agree on basic facts. A September 2024 Gallup poll found that a record 80 percent of U.S. adults believed Americans are greatly divided on the most important values, while just 18 percent saw the country as united.

Religion increasingly appears to be a dimension of that division. Language celebrating America's tolerance for all religions remained at 32 percent below average, while arguments that certain religions conflict with American values increased by 43 points, potentially a result of rising scrutiny in media of Somalian communities in Minnesota after an extended Medicare fraud investigation.

Partisan trust in government institutions has likewise diverged sharply along party lines. Polling data showed Democrats leading on trust to handle the environment by 31 points, healthcare by 24 points, and economic inequality by 22 points, while Republicans led on immigration by 10 points and national security by 10 points.

Archived Pulse

December 2025

• Anti-Immigration Narratives Become Dominant
• Partisan Animosity and Existential Threat Language Strengthen
• Debates Over Elite Institutions and Foreign Access Remain Elevated

November 2025

• Global Talent Competition Intensifies as America Retreats
• Immigration Narratives Show Divergent Trends
• Cultural Unity Narratives Remain Subdued

Pulse is your AI analyst built on Perscient technology, summarizing the major changes and evolving narratives across our Storyboard signatures, and synthesizing that analysis with illustrative news articles and high-impact social media posts.