NBA Preview

The 2025-26 NBA season tipped off last week with big developments both on and off the court. The defending champion Thunder outlasted Kevin Durant and the Rockets in the season opener in double OT in a possible Western Conference Finals preview. Victor Wembanyama reminded everyone that he is a truly unique talent, dominating the Mavericks and the #1 overall pick Cooper Flagg in their opener. And V.J. Edgecombe exploded onto the NBA scene with a 34-point game in his 76ers debut.

Oh, and the Trail Blazers lost their first game, and hours later, their coach Chauncey Billups was arrested for being involved with the mafia in a poker game, and, allegedly, for providing information to bettors about his plan to rest all of his key players in a late-season game.

Heat guard Terry Rozier was also arrested for tipping bettors off about his intent to remove himself early from a game due to an "injury" so all of the under bets on his individual player props for that game would hit. Rozier had already been investigated, and cleared, by the NBA for these allegations.

This is an absolute mess and a completely predictable outcome from the legalization and 24/7/365 marketing blitz by sports gambling companies. The player prop bets are especially insidious, and we've already seen the damage in baseball, where pitchers were alleged to have intentionally thrown balls on certain pitches, and now in basketball with Rozier (and Malik Beasley). And these cases are very likely the tip of the iceberg, or, to use Jamie Dimon's recent analogy, the couple of cockroaches that suggest many more are hiding in the cracks.

Clippers owner Steve Ballmer is getting a little bit of relief from the media pressure he was under for his brazen circumvention of the salary cap with the $50 million no-show endorsement deal that he routed through a fraudulent carbon capture company, as that crazy story fades into the background.

But you're going to need to rely on independent sites like Panoptica and independent journalists like Pablo Torre to follow the narratives around gambling and cheating owners, because ESPN and just about every other medium-sized-and-up print or broadcast media company are compromised by the cash windfall from Fan Duel, Draft Kings, Underdog and the like. This is a new layer of conflict on top of the longstanding "broadcast partner" status that define ESPN's cozy relationships with all of the major sports leagues.

For the NBA, here are some of the best of those independent voices to follow:

• Pablo Torre (Finds Out) - @pablofindsout on Twitter / X. Sports has long seemed a massive opportunity for a dogged investigative journalist, and Pablo is proving that out as he finds out about NFL salary collusion, MLB cheating, and most recently, the Ballmer / Kawhi / Aspiration story.
• The Zodiac GM - @TheZodiacGM; This account sounds like a joke, but it's actually a serious attempt to apply the principles of astrology to the sport that is all about synergy and fit, basketball. If you are a basketball fan but astrology skeptic, just start reading Zodiac's posts. You might find yourself coming around. It is simply uncanny how often he is right about player and coach fits.
• Cranjis McBasketball - @Tim_NBA; This isn't a Space Jam fan account - it's for Lakers fans, which I'm not, and hardcore basketball X and O nerds, which I kind of am. His obsessive charting of games enables him to provide insane levels of detail on how the Lakers are approaching both ends of the court from a tactical perspective. It's not flattering to head coach J.J. Redick, which is one of the reasons I'm down on the Lakers this season.
• True Hoop - @TrueHoop; Henry Abbott and David Thorpe do a great job covering the NBA on and off the court. Henry recently reminded his readers about the NBA's long history with the Mob, noting that in all likelihood, former NBA Commissioner David Stern leaked the news of the still ongoing FBI investigation into corrupt referee Tim Donaghy as soon as he found out about it from the FBI. Which killed any further investigation and enabled him to portray Donaghy as a "lone wolf" and limit the damage to the league's integrity.

Season predictions and futures bets

The one innovation in the sports gambling market that I actually like comes from the prediction markets sites - Polymarket and Kalshi. These sites claim to be legal across the U.S. because of their structure as CFTC-regulated exchanges, not sportsbooks; and this distinction also, arguably, means that any gains on contracts bought and sold on these exchanges get much better tax treatment than wins and losses on a sportsbook: under Section 1256, gains and losses from contracts are automatically 60% long-term capital gains or losses and 40% short-term capital gains or losses, versus 100% ordinary income for sportsbook wagers. And losses are not limited to the amount of any winnings for traders of contracts, as they are for sportsbook losses. This is a massive structural advantage for the exchanges, and trading volume in sports contracts has ballooned because of it. This is a fluid situation and I am not an accountant or tax advisor or regulatory consultant!

Futures bets have been a staple of Vegas sportsbooks for years. You can bet on teams to win their division, conference or championship, and on individual players to win season-long awards. These markets are open all season and the odds fluctuate in accordance with performance as the season progresses, but these were "set it and forget it" type bets where once you made your wager and got the piece of paper from the sportsbook, you were stuck holding it until it either paid off or expired worthless. The big innovation for these types of bets on Polymarket and Kalshi is that any contract you buy - or sell - can be traded or closed out along the way as the market prices move. And the sites pay a few percent in interest on your investment in a contract which makes locking up capital for season-long bets, whose outcomes won't be determined for 6 months or more, a little less painful. The ability to play both sides of the markets and wager on teams to NOT win is also an attractive new feature.

These futures bets are also the least likely to be subject to manipulation and they are the least abstracted from the actual sport itself, so they are easier for me to rationalize as being a more palatable form of sports gambling than player props and parlays.

So, with all that background, let's take a look at the NBA season ahead through the lens of the futures markets for the title winner, the MVP and the Rookie of the Year.

The 2025-26 NBA Championship winner

Last year the Thunder won 68 games, which was a whopping 16 games better than the Western Conference 2-seed, (my) Houston Rockets. The oldest player on their roster is Alex Caruso at 31. Chet Holmgren is healthy and has looked fantastic in the first two weeks of this season. They have the reigning MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they have some of the best perimeter defenders in the league in Caruso and Cason Wallace. Mark Daigneault is a great young coach. Oh and their second round pick from last year, Ajay Mitchell, was big for them in the playoffs last year and has stepped up in the early going this season with Jalen Williams out. GM Sam Presti has built a roster that is deep enough to weather the inevitable injuries that will crop up during an 82-game season. At 29 cents (which pays out $1 if they win the NBA championship) on Kalshi and 27c on Polymarket, they are by far the most expensive team in the league, but also good value at about 2.5x your money, if you think like I do that they are just in their own tier right now.

I believe their only other serious challengers will come from the Western Conference and specifically from Denver , Houston and San Francisco. the Nuggets (12c / 14c) will always be a threat with Nikola Jokic on the roster and might have the most underrated player in the league in Aaron Gordon. New coach (and son of Rick) David Adelman had this Denver team playing hard after taking over for Michael Malone very late in the regular season, and they gave the Thunder their biggest test in last year's playoffs, taking the eventual champs to 7 games in the conference semis. The Rockets (6c / 6c) added even more size and improved shooting by bringing Kevin Durant to the team in the offseason, and he might make them the most dangerous team to OKC in a head-to-head matchup. And I don't think you can rule out the Warriors (6c / 8c), who will be difficult for anyone to beat if they can stay healthy.

The market has already moved the Spurs (7c / 5c) up into this second tier after their 4-0 start to the season. I love what the Spurs are putting together, with, seemingly all of a sudden, a lot of very interesting young talent surrounding Wemby, including rookie Dylan Harper (Ron's son which means he is pretty much guaranteed to be awesome) and another top-five pick from the prior draft, Stephon Castle - but I still think they're at least a year away from being a real threat. Something seems off in Minnesota (2c), because a team with prime Anthony Edwards and quite a bit of surrounding talent should feel more dangerous than they do.

Neither LA team makes the cut as contenders from my vantage point. The Lakers (4c / 5c) fleeced Dallas in the Luka trade last year, but their roster is still thin and imbalanced, and LeBron seems even more irritable than usual. The Clippers (3c / 4c) faded in the second half of last year, and there is no way that the Kawhi / Harden / CP3 trio stays healthy or avoids turning on one another.

Prediction: Houston trades for a point guard after December 15 and becomes a credible threat to OKC but the Thunder hold them off in the Western Conference Finals.

Cleveland (10c / 11c) and New York (8c / 7c) are the odds-on favorites in the Eastern Conference. I'm still not sold on Cleveland in the playoffs. Philadelphia (3c / 5c) is off to a red-hot start, winning their first 4 games behind the backcourt duo of Tyrese Maxey and rookie V.J. Edgecombe out of Baylor. This rookie class is full of star power, but so far it's been Edgecombe, the #3 pick, whose star has shined the brightest. Orlando (2c / 3c) added Desmond Bane and as long as Jalen Suggs is healthy, they are a solid team. Giannis is playing MVP-level basketball for the Bucks (2c / 2c) even as trade rumors swirl. Indiana (1c / 1c) and Boston (1c / 3c) won't be fun teams to play against, but without Tyrese Halliburton and Jayson Tatum, respectively, they won't be contenders this season.

Prediction: Jalen Brunson takes the Knicks to the Finals by beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Where they are swept by the repeat champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

From a futures standpoint, I'm not sure I like any of these teams outside of OKC, but flyers on the Rockets, Warriors, Knicks and Bucks at least offer enough upside to be intriguing. I'd be looking at Eastern Conference winner odds on any of the teams in that conference.

Awards - MVP

I am on the Wemby MVP bandwagon after seeing what he has done the first few games of this season. Betting on him is not cheap, as he's now about even with SGA at 28c on Poly and 31c on Kalshi (up from only 11c at the start of the season). San Antonio is going to win enough games to make his candidacy viable, and if he stays healthy enough to play in 60+ games, he's going to put up video game numbers. And there's just a lot of narrative enthusiasm for him, which is something we'll dig into later in the season using some of Perscient's Storyboards. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is about the same cost as Wemby (29c / 27c), and I would rather be on the "no" side of that bet (72c / 73c), because OKC is just so deep and talented and because I think voters will ultimately have a hard time giving SGA back-to-back MVPs. Luka (15c / 14c) is going to have a strong year but the Lakers aren't going to be good enough for him to win MVP. Jokic (19 c / 20c) will be a viable candidate again and is offering better value than he has in a long time, with Wemby's hot start pushing his price down from about 26c at the start of the season. But the best value on the board for this award is probably Anthony Edwards (3c / 2c), although Giannis at 8c on Poly (he is 12c on Kalshi!) is intriguing. If you want to play the longshots, Tyrese Maxey (3c / 3c), Steph Curry (1c / 2c) are cheap and you don't have to squint too hard to see a world where they win, or at least threaten to, making these good entry prices. Cade Cunningham, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson and even Alperen Sengun are your lottery tickets worth maybe a small investment (all of them are 1c).

Prediction: Wemby. This Spurs team will be good enough to support an MVP candidate and as long as Wemby plays enough games he is going to get a ton of support for this award. I think owning a small "portfolio" of tickets for some of the sub-5-cent guys makes sense in addition to a larger amount on Wemby.

Awards - Rookie of the Year

Cooper Flagg was a prohibitive favorite to win this award coming into the season, and for good reason. But Jason Kidd has been playing him at point guard (?) and the Mavs are struggling to start the season, so he has dropped from 60c to win this award to 40c on Poly and 48c on Kalshi. In the meantime, Edgecombe, Harper and Grizzlies rookie Cedric Coward have been among the most impressive rookies we've seen in some time. V.J. looks like the real deal, and he is going to benefit from playing next to Maxey, but the market has reacted strongly to his start and made this bet a questionable risk / reward - he is now the odds-on favorite and is trading at 44c on Poly and 48c on Kalshi after starting the season below 10c. Flyers on Ace Bailey (4c / 8c) of the Jazz, who looked strong in the preseason but got off to a slow regular season start, and Coward (7c / 3c) are worth considering. Flagg absolutely has the talent to storm back and win this award, but it's not going to happen while playing out of position.

Prediction: The cream rises to the top after Jason Kidd starts playing to Cooper's many strengths and the 18-year-old wins it. I'm a buyer of Flagg at any price below 50c, and I also like Dylan Harper at under 10c.

Team win totals

Team over-unders are kind of weird. You are probably used to seeing a specific number before the season as a target and then getting to be roughly equally on either side of that number. Polymarket is set up that way, although finding these bets - excuse me, contracts - on their site is a bit of a challenge (https://polymarket.com/event/nba-win-totals-over-or-under), but Kalshi has two levels set for each or at least most teams. These markets do not appear very liquid so there is probably a limit to what you could or should want to bet here, and frankly, many of these markets are so thin that they are untradeable - for instance, Polymarket currently offers both sides of the Clippers (49.5 wins) at 80c and 85c, which obviously doesn't make sense so please stay away.

I do want to be short both LA teams in the loaded West. I would have been pessimistic about this old Clippers roster before the whole Ballmer / Kawhi thing blew up last month, and now I can't get short enough. They were terrible for the second half of last season. Harden is likely to quit on this team if it starts falling apart early. On Kalshi, you can still get 3-to-2 odds that they will win fewer than 45 games (40c), and this is probably my favorite bet in the team win totals category.

The Lakers have Luka, but LeBron is older and even grumpier and besides Austin Reaves, the rest of the roster is pretty gross. I liked J.J. Redick as a player and commentator, but he's not a good head coach (see @Tim_NBA on Twitter / X). On Kalshi, you can bet on the Lakers to win fewer than 40 games for 19c and fewer than 45 for 42c, and I like both of those bets.

Even though Zion Williamson looks thinner and friskier than he has in years (ever?), some of these West teams are going to have to lose a bunch of games, and I think New Orleans is one of those teams that will struggle to get to 30 wins. The odds were more favorable before they started 0-4, but I still like under 25 wins for 28c on Kalshi.

OKC has a massive win total target at 65, but they won 68 games last year, and I think they can could win 70 this year. Before the season you could get the over 65 at 3-to-2 odds, but that is now priced at 57c, so I just like that bet whereas I loved it pre-season. Even the best teams besides OKC will struggle to put up big win numbers in the West, and the Nuggets always seem to have a month where they inexplicably stink, so I also like the under on Denver at 55 wins even though it's priced at less-than-even-money (currently 55c). Dallas at 33c to win fewer than 35 games looks very attractive to me. If you believe in the Spurs after their 4-0 start, you can buy them to win 55 games for 20c. I don't love the Rockets' futures because I think this team is going to take a little while to figure out and likely trade for a point guard, but 37c to win 55+ games is at least worth considering.

Conversely, the weaker East, especially at the bottom, means that the best teams will have inflated win totals. You aren't getting paid much for the Knicks to win 50 games (67c) but it's still a good bet. Orlando to win 50 after adding Desmond Bane is attractive at 37c currently. Milwaukee to win 50 at 30c is a good bet. I am a big believer in Tyrese Maxey and with the way VJ has shot out of the gate, PHI at 31c to win 50+ games isn't the craziest idea in the world.

Here is hoping that the stars and the rookies stay healthy, because if they do, NBA fans are in for a great season of basketball on the court. If you're going to do any wagering, do your own research, be cognizant of the pricing differences between sites, wager responsibly in terms of how much money you have at risk, and please stay away from the prop bets and parlays!